1 Introduction

Reliable estimates of levels of migration are needed for policy development, planning and decision-making. For example, migration statistics are a key component of population estimates, used to allocate central government funding within the UK and to local public services. The Covid-19 pandemic impacted both domestic and international migration patterns. This briefing is intended to provide a summary of pre-pandemic domestic migration relating to London, to provide a baseline against which new data can be compared. The Office for National Statistics provide annual data on internal migration moves into and out of each local authority in England and Wales, and for this report we used the data for the year ending mid 2020 that were released in June 2021. The next data will be released by ONS during the Summer, 2023.

Source of domestic migration data: ONS

The report is intended as a resource for those working in sectors needing a perspective on population change in London. Our goal is to inform and assist a wide range of users – for this, we depend on your feedback so please send your comments and suggestions to demography@london.gov.uk.

2 Trends over the last two decades

The chart below shows the number of migrants moving to London from other regions of the UK (blue bars), the number of migrants moving from London (red bars), and the estimated net migration (out-migration subtracted from in-migration) over the last two decades.

The consistently negative values for net migration show that more people moved away from London than into London for all years during that period. There was a reduction in movement away from London around the financial recession in 2008-10, but this event apparently did not impact on movement to London. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, annual net migration had returned to the pre-recession value of around -100,000.

3 Destinations and origins of London’s domestic migration flows

The following three maps show the destinations and origins of migrants to and from London for the year ending June 2020, and net migration. The data have been adjusted for the estimated size of the local authority population for the year ending June 2019.

Source of population data: ONS

OUT-MIGRATION

IN_MIGRATION

NET MIGRATION

The first map shows that the most favoured destinations in England and Wales of migrants from London were the commuter belt, especially the north-western sector, and the cities of Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. The local authorities of Buckinghamshire and Birmingham had the highest numbers of migrants from London at 9745 and 7382. The lowest values were from the Isles of Scilly (15) and Barrow-in-Furness (in Cumbria, 44).

The second map shows the origins in England and Wales of migrants to London, and its overall lighter colour compared to the first map underlines the lower flow volume into London compared to those out of London. The local authorities of Birmingham and Oxford accounted for the highest numbers of migrants to London at 7477 and 5881 respectively while the Isles of Scilly (7) and Blaenau Gwent (40) accounted for the fewest.

The third map shows net migration. Local authorities with significant university towns in such as Oxford, Cambridge, Warwick and Exeter show the highest positive net migration rates, indicating that overall they provide population for London. The commuter belt local authorities show the greatest negative net migration rates, indicating they are a drain on London’s population.

4 Characteristics of origins and destinations

In addition to examining the distribution of origins and destination local authorities for London domestic migrants, we can explore the characteristics of these local authorities. For this we can use the “Area Classification” scheme which is based on socio-economic and demographic data collected during the census and has the aim to identify areas of the country with similar characteristics. Here we use Version 2 of the 2011 Area classification which was published in July 2017, and we include just England and Wales.

The three bar charts below show the area-based characteristics of the destinations and origins of migrants to and from London for the year ending June 2020, and similarly for net migration. The data are disaggregated by age-group. The map at the end of this section shows how the area-based classification categories are distributed in England and Wales.

Source of area classification data: gov.uk

OUT-MIGRATION

IN_MIGRATION

NET MIGRATION

The first bar chart above shows that the principal destination category for migrants from London is “Affluent England”, which as the map below shows, refers exclusively to boroughs in the South East and East regions. The second most frequent destination category is “Business, Education and Heritage Centres”. The second bar chart shows that the first and second most frequent categories for origin local authorities are the same as for destination local authorities but are in opposite order of importance, so that the most frequent origin category is “Business, Education and Heritage Centres”. The age-category 18 - 24 years is the largest demographic group for this area classification category, for both in- and out-migration.

The third bar chart shows that “Affluent England” was the dominant location category accounting for loss of population from London, mainly related to the positive net migration of the age groups 0 - 17 and 25 - 44 years. It also shows that “Business, Education and Heritage Centres” was the only category that contributed significant net domestic population flow to London between July 2019 - June 2020, consequent to the positive net migration of adults in the age groups 18 - 24 and 25 - 44 years.

5 London’s net domestic migration flows by agegroup

We will now examine geographical patterns of net migration by agegroup. The five maps below show the patterns of net migration, adjusted for population (data from June 2019 mid-year estimates by age group).

0 - 17 y.

18 - 24 y.

25 - 44 y.

45 - 64 y.

65 + y.

When comparing the five maps, the overall blue colour of the second map shows that the age group 18 - 24 years differs from the other four age groups by having a positive net flow of population into London. This map above shows that many of these young adults migrated to London from the cities of Manchester, Nottingham, Bristol, Leeds and Sheffield, however the commuter belt local authorities on the north-west side of London still had a negative flow.

The third map, for the age group 25 - 44 years, shows that while the cities of Oxford, Cambridge, Nottingham and Leeds still contributed a positive flow to London, the commuter belt local authorities surrounding London strongly pulled others from this age group away from the city. The paler colours of the fourth and fifth maps show the flow rates for the age groups 45 - 64 years and 65+ years are the lowest of all the age groups.

While there are many factors at play contributing to the variation in migration rate by age, the most important push factors for the 25 - 44 year group is likely to be the high cost of housing in London and limited availability of larger housing for families, and an important pull factor is the desire for a cleaner and greener environment.

6 Variation in net domestic migration rate within London

The plots in the previous section showed that for the past two decades, each year more people have been moving out of London to other parts of the UK than have been moving into London. This negative net domestic migration contrasts with international migration, for which net migration for London has long been positive. The following map shows how net domestic migration rate varied between the boroughs of London for the year ending June 2020.

The map above shows that Brent, Newham and Haringey had the largest percentage net domestic migration out-flow. All three boroughs lost more than 2% of their population in the year ending June 2020 to boroughs outside London. Only the borough of Sutton gained population from outside London.

7 Variation in domestic migration flux within London

The following map shows how the sum of domestic in-flow and out-flow, adjusted for population size, varied between the boroughs of London for the year ending June 2020.

The map above shows that the boroughs of Wandsworth, Lambeth and Hammersmith & Fulham had the largest overall percentage movements. More than 20% of their population either moved into London from elsewhere in England and Wales, or moved away from London. The boroughs of Havering and Bexley had the lowest rates of population movement.

For more information, or to send your comments and suggestions, please contact the Demography Team, GLA City Intelligence Unit.
demography@london.gov.uk